Crop income you can model. Land you actually own.
You buy a titled hectare at the WhiteRabbit Cocoa Estate, Amaechi Idodo, Nkanu East, Enugu State; WhiteRabbit farms it under a 15-year renewable management contract. Returns come from the harvest — the land itself is yours, registered in your name.
Crop revenue — 65% of gross, paid on harvest
Plantain intercrop income begins around month 10 while the cocoa establishes. First cocoa harvest in year 3, ramping to peak yield from year 6. You receive 65% of gross crop revenue; every deduction is itemised in your quarterly report. This is the only revenue stream in the projections below.
Land appreciation — real, but excluded from the model
Titled agricultural land in Enugu State has historically appreciated as estates develop. We treat that as potential upside on an asset you own outright — it is deliberately excluded from every ROI figure on this page, so the projections stand on crop economics alone.
The three-scenario model
Same hectare, same yields, same 65% share — only the cocoa price changes. Gross figures include the plantain intercrop. Cumulative ROI is measured against the full ₦27,000,000 investment.
Field operations began in July 2025 — no cocoa harvest has occurred yet. These are forward projections, not results.
| Year | Cocoa yield (t/ha) | Total gross | Your net (65%) | Cumulative | Cum. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | ₦1,000,000 | ₦650,000 | ₦650,000 | 2.4% |
| 2 | — | ₦3,850,000 | ₦2,502,500 | ₦3,152,500 | 11.7% |
| 3 | 0.8 | ₦10,402,000 | ₦6,761,300 | ₦9,913,800 | 36.7% |
| 4 | 1.2 | ₦13,678,000 | ₦8,890,700 | ₦18,804,500 | 69.6% |
| 5 | 1.6 | ₦16,954,000 | ₦11,020,100 | ₦29,824,600 | 110.5% |
| 6 | 2.0 | ₦20,230,000 | ₦13,149,500 | ₦42,974,100 | 159.2% |
| 7 | 2.0 | ₦20,230,000 | ₦13,149,500 | ₦56,123,600 | 207.9% |
| Year | Cocoa yield (t/ha) | Total gross | Your net (65%) | Cumulative | Cum. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | ₦1,000,000 | ₦650,000 | ₦650,000 | 2.4% |
| 2 | — | ₦3,850,000 | ₦2,502,500 | ₦3,152,500 | 11.7% |
| 3 | 0.8 | ₦8,386,000 | ₦5,450,900 | ₦8,603,400 | 31.9% |
| 4 | 1.2 | ₦10,654,000 | ₦6,925,100 | ₦15,528,500 | 57.5% |
| 5 | 1.6 | ₦12,922,000 | ₦8,399,300 | ₦23,927,800 | 88.6% |
| 6 | 2.0 | ₦15,190,000 | ₦9,873,500 | ₦33,801,300 | 125.2% |
| 7 | 2.0 | ₦15,190,000 | ₦9,873,500 | ₦43,674,800 | 161.8% |
| Year | Cocoa yield (t/ha) | Total gross | Your net (65%) | Cumulative | Cum. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | ₦1,000,000 | ₦650,000 | ₦650,000 | 2.4% |
| 2 | — | ₦3,850,000 | ₦2,502,500 | ₦3,152,500 | 11.7% |
| 3 | 0.8 | ₦14,434,000 | ₦9,382,100 | ₦12,534,600 | 46.4% |
| 4 | 1.2 | ₦19,726,000 | ₦12,821,900 | ₦25,356,500 | 93.9% |
| 5 | 1.6 | ₦25,018,000 | ₦16,261,700 | ₦41,618,200 | 154.1% |
| 6 | 2.0 | ₦30,310,000 | ₦19,701,500 | ₦61,319,700 | 227.1% |
| 7 | 2.0 | ₦30,310,000 | ₦19,701,500 | ₦81,021,200 | 300.1% |
Year 1 plantain income is a partial year (first bunches around months 10–12). Projections, not guarantees — see the assumptions and risks below. Recomputed July 2026 against the stated assumptions; every table is deterministic arithmetic you can re-check yourself.
Every assumption, in the open
A projection is only as honest as its assumptions. These are ours — bring them to your accountant, your agronomist, or your lawyer. In a verification session we will rebuild the model live with your own numbers.
- Investment: ₦27,000,000 per hectare (10,000 sqm) — covers titled land, farm setup, and first-year management.
- You receive 65% of gross crop revenue, itemised in your quarterly report and specified in the management agreement. Our compensation comes out of the harvest — we earn when the plantation produces.
- Scenario prices are international benchmark prices, realised at 90% farm-gate: local export companies and aggregators pay close to, but below, the world price. The 90% factor is a stated assumption — actual offtake contracts vary.
- Exchange rate held constant at ₦1,400/$ across all years (mid-July 2026: CBN official ≈₦1,380/$, parallel ≈₦1,412/$).
- Current market context: cocoa traded near $5,600–6,050/t in mid-July 2026 (ICE), against the $4,500 conservative, $6,500 base, and $10,500 high scenarios.
- Planting density: 1,100 hybrid cocoa trees per hectare.
- Cocoa yield ramp: 0 t (years 1–2), 0.8 t (year 3), 1.2 t (year 4), 1.6 t (year 5), 2.0 t/ha (year 6+) — that is 0.73–1.82 kg per tree at 1,100 trees/ha. The Nigerian smallholder average is ~0.3–0.5 t/ha; our targets assume hybrid stock, planting density, drip irrigation, and professional input and disease management — that uplift is the case for professional management, and we publish it rather than hide it.
- Plantain intercrop gross: ₦1,000,000 in year 1 (first bunches around months 10–12, partial year), then ₦3,850,000 per year. Plantain is sold locally in naira — no FX or realization adjustment applied.
- Land-value appreciation is excluded from every ROI figure above. It is potential upside, not part of the model.
- All figures are projections, not guarantees.
The risks, stated plainly
An operator who only shows you upside is selling, not informing. These are the material risks and what we do about each.
Commodity price volatility
Cocoa traded near $10,500/t at the 2024 spike and materially lower before and after. That is exactly why we publish three price scenarios instead of one — and plan on the base case, not the peak.
Farm-gate realization
The price paid by local export companies and aggregators is below the international benchmark. We model it at 90% of the world price — a stated assumption; actual offtake contracts vary, and a weaker realised price lowers every figure on this page.
Exchange rate
Projections hold FX at ₦1,400/$ (mid-July 2026: CBN official ≈₦1,380/$, parallel ≈₦1,412/$). Naira depreciation would raise naira-denominated revenue on export crops; appreciation would lower it. We state the assumption rather than promise a direction.
Disease and agronomic risk
Black pod and other disease pressure is endemic to West African cocoa. Mitigation: resistant hybrid varieties, scheduled spraying programmes, and full-time agronomists on the estate.
Yield ramp risk
Our 0.8→2.0 t/ha targets are managed-plantation targets, above the national smallholder average. If yields land closer to that average, returns fall — ask us to model it in your Verification Session.
Operator continuity
Your land is titled to you via a registered Deed of Assignment — it does not sit on WhiteRabbit's balance sheet. The 15-year renewable management contract specifies terms, exit, and transfer rights.